DRC for ReDSS
Terms of Reference (TOR) for Consultancy on “Durable Solutions Context Analysis in Somalia .”
Who is the Danish Refugee Council?
Founded in 1956, the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) is a leading international NGO and one of the few with specific expertise in forced displacement. Active in 40 countries with 9,000 employees and supported by 7,500 volunteers, DRC protects, advocates, and builds sustainable futures for refugees and other displacement-affected people and communities. DRC works during displacement at all stages: In the acute crisis, in displacement, when settling and integrating into a new place, or upon return. DRC provides protection and life-saving humanitarian assistance; supports displaced persons in becoming self-reliant and included in hosting societies; and works with civil society and responsible authorities to promote the protection of rights and peaceful coexistence.
About ReDSS
ReDSS is a secretariat working on behalf of 14 international and national NGOs working on forced displacement in the Horn of Africa. We were established in 2015 in response to a desire by the NGO community to be more proactive in shaping durable solutions policy and programming in the region. Our team works at both a regional and a country level and focuses on the translation of evidence and research into policies and programmes that can better deliver for displacement-affected communities. We do this through a range of activities, including convening key stakeholders at multiple levels to produce consensus around collective actions that can be taken; supporting new evidence generation through commissioning and undertaking research and analysis; and building the capacity of key actors through delivering training and developing tools and guidance. We do not implement programmes directly, and by maintaining this distance are better able to play a neutral role across the system. Since ReDSS was established in 2015, we have played a critical role in shaping durable solutions narratives in the region, building on our initial work in Somalia and expanding to Ethiopia and Kenya which has allowed us to work on a wide range of policy and programming processes.
Purpose of the consultancy
The purpose of the study is to enhance the understanding of the potential influence of conflict, marginalization and political economy factors on the EU Xaldoon Project’s effectiveness and efficiency in Dollow and Xudur among Danwadaag Partners. This understanding will inform the necessary adaption of intervention during the inception phase of the project including identification of potential risks to project implementation. The conflict and marginalization dynamics analysis will focus on the presence and nature of conflict, parties to the conflict, as well as connectors and dividers in Dollow and Xudur generally and in three neighbourhoods in particular. These neighbourhoods include Qurdubey and Kaxareey in Dollow and Daryeel neighbourhood in Horseed, Xudur. The political economy analysis will focus on identifying key institutions and individuals and their incentive structures relevant to decisions on sustainable access to material integration for DACs in Dollow and Xudur. Material integration in this study refers to access to land tenure security, basic services, sustainable livelihoods and financial inclusion that are key elements of socio-economic rights.
The outcome of the study will be a report that will build upon the already existing analyses on conflict, marginalization and political economy dynamics in these locations. The report will also include actionable recommendations to Danwadaag partners on useful revisions of interventions in order to make them more conflict-sensitive and politically smart based on the findings of the context analysis. ReDSS will support Danwadaag partners to develop action plans based on the study findings and recommendations that include stakeholder engagement strategies (including government engagement)
Background
Despite progress made in the realization of durable solutions for displacement-affected communities in Somalia, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) continues to grow. There were 1.8 million Somali nationals newly displaced in 2022[1] which was a 107 percent increase from the previous year. The first half of 2023 has seen 1,349,000 new displacements[2] which is 66 percent higher than the levels of new displacement in the first half of 2022. Cyclical shocks such as droughts and floods perpetuate this cycle of displacement which is exacerbated by conflicts and forced evictions. A majority of the displaced move into cities and large towns such as Mogadishu, Baidoa, and Kismayo in south-central Somalia.[3] This adds tremendous pressure on scarce resources in those locations. For instance, Baidoa has a larger demand for water than it has an adequate supply.[4] The fact that the displaced opt to settle in these locations permanently for security and economic opportunity reasons further compounds the situation.[5] This has pushed durable solutions programme actors to think about smaller towns that can host the displaced so that they do not need to move to larger towns and cities (herein referred to as strategic towns).
The European Union-funded Xaldoon Project implemented through the Danwadaag Consortium has identified Dollow in Jubaland State of Somalia and Xudur in South West State of Somalia as strategic towns that can be useful to reduce population pressure on Kismayo and Baidoa respectively. The Project seeks to enhance climate-conscious durable solutions by mitigating drought-displacement vulnerabilities, and strengthening resilience and self-reliance of displacement-affected communities (DACs), towards (re)integration and reduced displacement in Somalia. It plans to achieve this through investments in government capacity, security of tenure, access to basic services, climate-resilient livelihoods, and financial inclusion. This project will be implemented in Baidoa, Dollow, Kismayo, and Xudur.
The decision to invest durable solutions resources in Dollow and Xudur needs to be informed by a context analysis to ensure that these resources not only avoid perpetuating marginalization and inter-communal conflict but are effective through politically smart interventions. Humanitarian entrepreneurship and aid diversion are among the biggest challenges to aid delivery in Somalia. This type of entrepreneurship is characterized by an extractive set of relationships that are informed by socio-political identities based on ethnic, race and clan dynamics.[1] Wherever aid resources go in Somalia, there are individuals – known as either gatekeepers or camp leaders – that connect aid actors to displaced populations. They often negotiate a physical space for displaced populations to reside while they lobby aid actors to provide resources at these sites.[2] In return for being allowed residence in the sites, the displaced population has to share a percentage of their aid provisions with the gatekeeper/camp leader as ‘rent’.[3] The aid actors are incentivized to engage with the gatekeepers/camp leaders to meet their aid goals which is a necessary condition to access additional funding to support displacement-affected communities. The land owners also benefit as the IDPs often clear their land to make it more inhabitable and also attract investments on the land brought in by aid actors such as water and sanitation infrastructure. Often, IDPs are left disadvantaged since as soon as the land value appreciates to a satisfactory level to the land owner, the latter forcibly evicts the former.[4] IDPs are rarely – if ever – compensated for their labour that added value to the land.[5] Displaced people from marginalized or minority clan groups fare much worse as protection and access to human rights are often informed by social networks framed by patrilineal clan kinship ties. Thus, the more powerful the clan a displaced person belongs to the more protected they are. These dynamics are likely to generally be present in Dollow and Xudur but each of the locations has a unique conflict and political economy profile.
Dollow has a large population of IDPs. There are 23,688 households (142, 512 individuals) in 5 IDP sites in Dollow.[6] The location has good access for humanitarian actors and local government is willing to provide IDP households with land to settle permanently. However, Dollow is located in Gedo Region where Jubaland Forces have been conducting military operations against non-state armed groups (NSAGs) which contributes to the conflict profile of the location. Additionally, the impact of the presence of Federal Government of Somalia troops as well as Ethiopia People Defence Forces – both of whom have a keen interest in policies and programming on solutions – needs to be thoroughly analysed. Consequently, Danwadaag partners need to understand the conflict dynamics of the location to develop conflict-sensitive approaches given the operations against NSAGs are likely to escalate in Gedo Region. Finally, the fact that Dollow is located close to the border with Ethiopia which hosts a sizeable number of Somali refugees and the keen interest of Ethiopian Authorities to promote returns could mean that investments in Dollow could incentivize returns. A thorough conflict and political economy analysis in Dollow will help consortium partners to craft interventions that do no harm and that are also politically smart to ensure the effectiveness of the Project.
Xudur has a modest population of IDPs as compared to Dollow. It hosts 7,266 households (30,506 individuals) in 76 IDP sites.[1] Unlike Dollow, access to Xudur has not been good on account of the conflict between the Federal and South West State Forces on the one hand and NSAGs on the other. An understanding of the conflict dynamics will be key for Danwadaag partners to avoid doing harm and meet the goals of the EU Xaldoon Project. An understanding of the key actors and the incentives that influence their decisions and behaviour over land allocation will also be important for the Project. Moreover, the risk of evictions in the 76 sites is high given that a majority of the sites do not have land tenure agreements and none of those with land tenure agreements have them in written form. The local authorities are willing to provide land for settlement that is located 9 kilometres from the town with limited connectivity to the town’s markets thereby spatially segregating IDPs that will be located there. This will require politically smart government engagement approaches to negotiate suitable relocation sites that would allow IDPs to access resources for self-reliance.
As argued in the preceding paragraphs, any investment aimed at addressing displacement vulnerabilities needs to appreciate the conflict and political economy context in which those investments are being applied to avoid deepening conflict and marginalization and to promote sustainable integration for the displaced and their hosts. Partners of the Danwadaag Consortium have a good grasp of the context in Baidoa and Kismayo; having worked in these locations for many years. However, the new locations of Dollow and Xudur present a gap in knowledge that this proposed study seeks to address.
Objective of the consultancy
The main objective of this study is to enhance the understanding of the potential influence of conflict, marginalization and political economy factors that are likely to have an impact on the EU Xaldoon effectiveness and efficiency in Dollow and Xudur among Danwadaag Partners. The specific objectives include:
- Map out local conflict dynamics (including clan and marginalization) that might pose a threat to the delivery of results and/or sustainability of the results, and:
- Make recommendations on how to monitor and navigate conflict-related risks and come up with specific suggestions on conflict-sensitive approaches and indicators that the project can use.
- Make recommendations on how to navigate and monitor clan and marginalization dynamics in prioritized project locations to build social cohesion rather than undermining it.
- Assess the project approach in relation to political economy opportunities and risks and:
- Make recommendations on politically smart approaches that the project can adopt including specific suggestions on monitoring and response to unanticipated PEA risks throughout the project.
- Develop an engagement strategy on how to work with formal and informal duty bearers to mitigate aid aversion and exclusion/discrimination of DAC communities and promote sustainable material integration
Main question: What key conflict and political economy factors will likely influence the effectiveness and efficiency of EU Xaldoon interventions in Dollow and Hudur?
Specific questions:
- How will the EU Xaldoon Project approach (neighbourhood targeting approach and focus on material integration) be influenced and/or influence the conflict dynamics in Qurdubey and Kaxareey neighbourhoods in Dollow and the Daryeel neighbourhood in Horseed, Xudur?
Profile: What is the context that shapes conflict in these neighbourhoods?
- Is there a history of conflict in these locations? (When? Who is targeted and why? Where? Methods of violence?) - What political, economic, social and environmental institutions and structures have shaped this conflict (e.g. clan groups and composition, inequality and resource exploitation)
Parties to the conflict: who are the main actors that influence conflict in these neighbourhoods?
- Who are the main parties to the conflict? (individuals, groups and/or institutions) - What are their interests, concerns, goals, hopes, fears, strategies, positions, preferences, worldviews, expectations and motivations? (e.g. autonomy, inequality between groups (‘horizontal inequality’), political power, ethno-nationalist, reparations) - What power do they have, how do they exert power, what resources or support do they have? Are they vulnerable? (e.g. local legitimacy through provision of security, power over corrupt justice institutions, weapons and capacity to damage infrastructure) - What are their incentives and disincentives for conflict and peace? (e.g. benefiting or losing from the war economy, prestige, retribution for historic grievances) - What capacities do they have to affect the context? - Who could be considered spoilers? What divides people? Who exercises leadership and how? (e.g. economic beneficiaries of conflict, criminal groups, opposition leader) - What could be considered connectors? Are there groups calling for non-violence? What connects people across conflict lines? How do people cooperate? Who exercises leadership for peace and how? (e.g. civil society, religious authorities, local justice mechanisms) - What are the relationships between actors, what are the trends, what is the strategic balance between actors (who is ‘winning’)? (e.g. conflictual, cooperative or business relationships especially among powerful landowners or influential land developers)
Causes: What causes conflict in these neighbourhoods?
- What are the structural causes of conflict? (e.g. unequal land distribution, political exclusion, poor governance, impunity, lack of state authority) - What are the proximate causes of conflict? (e.g. arms proliferation, illicit criminal networks, the emergence of self-defence non-state armed actors, overspill of conflict from a neighbouring country, natural resource discoveries)
Dynamics: What are the current conflict dynamics/trends in these neighbourhoods?
- What are the current conflict trends? What are the recent changes in behaviour? (e.g. conflict acts have increased but the number of deaths has decreased; political violence has intensified around local elections; defence spending has increased; paramilitaries have started running in local elections) - Which factors of the conflict profile, actors and causes reinforce or undermine each other? Which factors balance or mitigate others? (e.g. horizontal economic and political inequalities can increase the risk of conflict; uncertainty about the succession of the president strengthens party factionalism; cash for disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration fuels small arms proliferation) - What triggers conflict? (e.g. elections, economic and environmental shocks, economic crash, an assassination, coup, food price increases, a corruption scandal) - What scenarios can be developed? (e.g. best-case scenario: a peace agreement is signed quickly and the conflict parties implement a ceasefire; worst-case scenario: local politicians mobilise along ethnic lines in the run-up to elections and political violence and riots increase where groups meet)
Analysis: what are the risks of doing harm to vulnerable and marginalized DACs in the conflict context and what specific actions can project partners take to minimize these risks?
- What specific risks of doing harm to DACs to project delivery and sustainability of results exist in the conflict context of the project locations and how can the partners mitigate them?
- Are there any changes to the project approach that are necessary to reduce the risk of doing harm to DACs in the project locations? What changes are these?
- How can EU Xaldoon Project Partners navigate and monitor clan and marginalization dynamics in prioritized project locations to build social cohesion rather than undermining it?
- Which conflict programming actors (stabilization/peace-building) are working in these locations that EU Xaldoon Project partners can work with to strengthen the latter’s conflict-sensitive approach?
- What are the key political economy dynamics that are likely to influence the effectiveness of EU Xaldoon Project interventions relevant to material integration for DACs in Dollow and Xudur?
Structural diagnosis: what structural issues influence how decisions on accessing land tenure security, employment and trade opportunities and financial inclusion are made in Dollow and Xudur?
- What relevant structural features, including demography, geography (e.g. natural resource endowment), geopolitics, culture and social structure, historical legacies, climate change and technological progress influence access to land tenure security, sustainable livelihoods, and financial access for DACs?
Which institutions, including formal laws and regulations and informal social political and cultural norms, shape power relations and ultimately, economic and political outcomes relevant to access to land tenure security, sustainable livelihoods and financial inclusion for DACs?
Agency diagnosis: who are the key actors that influence decisions on accessing land tenure security, employment and trade opportunities and financial inclusion in Dollow and Xudur and what incentives influence their behaviour and decisions?
- Who are the relevant stakeholders/groups and what are their positions, interests, and needs? What is their respective level, nature and source of influence? Which actors/groups stand to benefit or lose out if displacement-affected communities have access to material integration in Dollow and Hudur and how? (To potentially include formal and informal actors including local and national elites, land owners, gatekeepers, aid agencies etc.) - What is the nature of the interactions between these different actors/groups, and why? How equal or unequal (due to the clan/linguistic influences) are the interactions of these actors either support or undermine access to services/rights relevant to material integration among the different groups of the DACs? In particular, what is the relationship between the community and those in positions of power (e.g. local authorities)? - Are there behaviours around creating a conducive environment for sustainable integration of DACs that are based on political competition, patronage relations, corruption, rent-seeking, nepotism, social exclusion, or some sort of political arrangement?
Analysis: what specific politically smart approaches can Danwadaag partners employ to better navigate the political economy context to ensure project delivery and sustainability of project results?
- Are the interventions proposed under the EU Xaldoon likely to be effective given the political economy of material integration for DACs in Dollow and Xudur? Why/why not? - Is there any risk of the intervention in the neighbourhoods in Dollow and Xudur becoming a pull factor for DACs from the surrounding locations that are not targeted? - What necessary adjustments need to be made in the inception period and how can these be monitored over the life period of the project? - What stakeholder (including government) engagement strategies are likely to work to promote material integration in the project locations given the findings from the political economy context?
Scope of work and Methodology
The study will cover two geographical areas: Qurdubey and Kaxareey neighbourhoods in Dollow and the Horseed neighbourhood in Xudur with focus on the large human settlement of Daryeel within the neighborhood. It will be carried out within 90 days between August and October 2023. The study will include a thorough review of literature on conflict and clan dynamics in the two locations as well as political economy analyses that exist. It will also include the collection of primary data from research participants virtually and/or through field-based research.
- Deliverables
The Consultant will submit the following deliverables as mentioned below, providing all documentation on email:
Expected deliverables
- Inception Report (with PowerPoint presentation) outlining the consultant’s understanding of the TOR, methodological approach, agreed analytical framework, and ethical considerations. The inception report will also outline the work plan and a list of individuals and/or types of organizations the consultant will be interviewing for presentation to the research technical committee.
- Based on desk review and stakeholder consultation, draft a report (30 pages maximum without annexes) including:
- Table of contents, glossary of key terms, list of acronyms,
- An executive summary (maximum 3 pages), introduction highlighting the objectives of the study, the rationale, methodology used, scope and limitations, theory of change
- Outline of literature review and stakeholder consultation
- Conclusions, and concrete recommendations based on findings - focusing on the HOW
- Annexes including but not limited to list of key interviews, bibliography, documents reviewed
- A short PowerPoint presentation highlighting the key questions, methodology, key findings and recommendations (15 slides maximum)
- Summary notes from of key informants’ interviews
- Learning event with key stakeholders to present key findings and develop recommendations collectively
- Final revised report and PowerPoint presentation based on inputs received from key stakeholders and the technical committee.
- Participation in report launch and uptake discussions
Duration, timeline, and payment
The total expected duration to complete the assignment will be no more than 90 consultancy days within a span of no more than 3 months. Starting date will be jointly discussed with the selected consultant(s). The consultant(s) will report to the ReDSS Somalia Manager and be guided by a Study Advisory Committee, made up of key expertise in the subject matter identified by ReDSS. The consultant shall be prepared to complete the report no later than Mid-December 2023, with uptake expected up to Mid-January 2024. DRC will make an initial payment of between 30 to 50% of the total costs upon signing of the contract and the remaining amount upon completion of the work, including any agreed reimbursables.
Eligibility, qualification, and experience required
Essential qualifications of the consultants:
- Master’s degree in international relations, development, anthropology, political science, or economics
- Minimum 10 years’ proven experience in conducting similar analyses in Somalia and/or Somali-speaking context
- Strong knowledge of the region and the socio-economic and political dynamics affecting it; more specifically on displacement trends within the Horn of Africa region
- Strong analytical and writing skills with proven experience in producing high-quality research with ability to present complex information in a simple and accessible manner
- Fluency in written and spoken English
Technical supervision
The selected consultant/s will work under the supervision of the ReDSS Somalia Manger and Solutions Coordinator with support and guidance from ReDSS members and partners.
Location and support
The study will cover Dollow and Xudur in Somalia***.*** The Consultant will provide her/his own computer, mobile telephone and any other applicable equipment.
Travel
There is a possibility for travel during the delivery of this work to facilitate workshops and meetings. The travel will be approved and facilitated by DRC according to the DRC laid down procedures.
Submission process
Interested Firms/Individuals that meet requirements should send their proposal and other required documents to the email address tender.ro01@drc.ngo on 28th August 2023 at 5 PM EAT.
Please indicate ‘’RFQ-RO01-002363’’: in the subject line of your email application.
Evaluation of bids
Administration Evaluation
A bid shall pass the administrative evaluation stage before being considered for technical and financial evaluation. Bids that are deemed administratively non-compliant may be rejected. Documents listed below shall be submitted with your bid.
Technical qualification
For the award of this project, the evaluation criteria below will govern the selection of offers received. The evaluation is made on a technical and financial basis. The proposed offers by bidders will be evaluated using, inter alia, a weighted criteria as described below:
Based on the initial screening, DRC will invite selected bidders for an interview.
The financial offer will then be weighed against the technical offer. The total cost of the financial offer including tax should be mentioned in the DRC Bid Form annex A.2, whith the budget breakdown.
Note: DRC is a VAT Withholding agent appointed by KRA
Financial Evaluation
All bids that pass the Technical Evaluation will proceed to the Financial Evaluation. Bids that are deemed technically non-compliant will not be financially evaluated.
Proposals failing to meet the above minimum requirements will not be considered further.
Please find complete bidding documents in the following link: RFP-RO01-002363_ ReDSS_Durable Solutions Context Analysis in Somalia
How to apply
Bids can be submitted by email to the following dedicated, controlled, & secure email address:
tender.ro01@drc.ngo
When Bids are emailed, the following conditions shall be complied with:
The RFP number shall be inserted in the Subject Heading of the email
Separate emails shall be used for the ‘Financial Bid’ and ‘Technical Bid’, and the Subject Heading of the email shall indicate which type the email contains- The financial bid shall only contain the financial bid form, Annex A.2
- The technical bid shall contain all other documents required by the tender, but excluding all pricing information
- Bid documents required, shall be included as an attachment to the email in PDF, JPEG, TIF format, or the same type of files provided as a ZIP file. Documents in MS Word or excel formats, will result in the bid being disqualified.
- Email attachments shall not exceed 4MB; otherwise, the bidder shall send his bid in multiple emails.
DRC is not responsible for the failure of the Internet, network, server, or any other hardware, or software, used by either the Bidder or DRC in the processing of emails.
Bids will be submitted electronically. DRC is not responsible for the non-receipt of Bids submitted by email as part of the e-Tendering process.
DRC will conduct reference checks from at least 2 previous works as an additional mandatory requirement.
Confidentiality
All information presented, obtained, and produced is to be treated as DRC’s property and is considered confidential for all other purposes than what is outlined in the ToR. Upon signing the contract, the selected consultant will be required to sign a confidentiality agreement. The material prepared by the consultant cannot be sold, used, or reproduced in any manner (partially or in full) by the consultant without prior permission from DRC.
Additional information
For additional information regarding these terms of reference, please send your questions to Regional Supply Chain Manager EAGL RO: Procurement.ro01@drc.ngo
https://jobcenterkenya.com/consultancy-on-durable-solutions-context-analysis-in-somalia_rfp-ro01-002363/
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